Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis
SERA is a geospatially and temporally oriented infrastructure analysis model that uses resource availability and technology cost to determine optimal hydrogen production and delivery scenarios. It supports the study of hydrogen infrastructure build-out and end-game scenarios and can be used to develop regional supply curves based on optimization results. SERA has a flexible internal architecture and is compatible with geographic information systems and cost inputs from the techno-economic models of hydrogen technologies. This allows it to address a wide range of analysis questions, particularly: Which pathways will provide least-cost hydrogen for a specified demand? What network economies can be achieved by linking production facilities to multiple demand centers? How will particular technologies compete with one another? (e.g., central vs. onsite) Given annual city-by-city hydrogen demands, feedstock cost forecasts, and a catalog of available hydrogen production, storage, and delivery technologies, the model generates blueprints for hydrogen infrastructure build-out that minimize the overall net-present-value of capital, operating, and feedstock costs for infrastructure networks that meet the specified demand profiles. The model represents production facilities and pipelines at the level of individually geolocated components, while it treats truck and rail transportation at an aggregate level. Intra-urban locations and sizes of hydrogen retail stations are determined using a geospatial model based on empirical data from retail gasoline station networks. The following are SERA's key capabilities: Semi-realistic optimization of physical build-out of hydrogen infrastructure Unified treatment of production, transmission, and distribution Easy addition of new technologies to analyses Consistent physical and economic computations Ability to estimate costs and cash flows Spatial and temporal resolution of hydrogen infrastructure networks Regional specificity Allowance for exogenously specified urban hydrogen demands We propose to continue our large scale sensitivity studies of the SERA model using the computational resources available on the Peregrine cluster. This will not only yield quantitative information about the influence of various input parameters on the model output, but it will also result in the construction of a library of scenarios of interested to hydrogen-vehicle stakeholders. If sufficiently interesting, the results will be published as an NREL technical report or conference paper.
last modified Nov 02, 2015 08:27 AM